Time Series Analysis of Live Birth and Stillbirth in Nigeria: A Case Study of University of Abuja Teaching Hospital Gwagwalada, Abuja, Nigeria (1996 – 2015)

Abstract

This work is design to study the variation in monthly number of live and stillbirth at university of Abuja teaching hospital Gwagwalada, Abuja between 1996 and 2015.To provide a model useful in forecasting live and still birth pattern. The study will give an insight on how stillbirth can be reduced in the hospital. The study will also serve as a guide to pregnant women and the general public to know the cause of stillbirth and how it can be prevented. The study will as well help the government to know the total number of babies that will be given birth to in the years to come (forecast).During the course of this study, it was noted/discovered that the data on live birth and stillbirth had irregular patterns such that, it goes very high at a period and very low at another. Also, the trend estimated showed a positive correlation between the live birth and still birth. Furthermore, the deterministic model was fitted and forecast was made. Probabilistic model identification, fitting of appropriate model and forecast was also carried out. However, the models fitted satisfy stationery condition and also had the minimum Akaike Information Criterion.  ARIMA (3 1 2) and ARIMA (2 1 1) which was fitted led to the forecast that live birth increased and then decreased for some time before and then decreased totally. It was also noticed in the original data collected that the total number of live births in august and September 2001 and 2002 and some other months was decreased leading to a decrease in the still birth. Lastly, it was discovered that maybe the number of pregnant women in the labor room at a time out-weighed the number of nursing staff making them inefficient and leading to some of the pregnant women being in labor for too long which lead to death of the fetal in the womb before delivery. Also, some of the nursing mothers were not properly orientated on the kind of health care required during pregnancy and the level of poverty in the country may have contributed to the increase in stillbirth during delivery. Based on this study, ARIMA (3 1 2) and ARIMA (2 1 1) were found appropriately fit to the live birth and stillbirth respectively. Increase in live birth also account for the increase in still birth and showed that as time goes on, more live birth and stillbirth will be noticed. This could be reduced drastically if women are well oriented and have standard good health condition.