Assessment of Magnitudes of Vulnerabilities to Drought in Pastoral Production System in Marsabit, Northern Kenya

Abstract

Communities in arid and semi-arid lands are faced with a number of challenges including short and unreliable rainfall and recurrent droughts affecting large numbers of humans and livestock. The drought frequency and severity has increased and is negatively impacting on households. This has increased the vulnerability levels in households. However, the magnitudes of vulnerabilities on households are not well understood and documented. The objectives of this study are to assess magnitude of vulnerabilities to drought in pastoral production system. Simple cross-sectional random sampling was used for primary data collection through questionnaires. 384 households were randomly interviewed in a household population of about 19,000 households using the (Scott Smith, 2013) formula for deciding the sample size. Secondary data was obtained from relevant public reports, journals, agricultural reports, statistical abstracts and development partners. The study considered various biophysical and socio-economic factors to calculate Vulnerability Index. Weights for different indicators to calculate the household vulnerability index (HVI) was used. The household Vulnerability Index was constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Data analysis was done using frequencies, percentages, spearman correlation, cross tabulations and chi square tests. The results were presented using tables, bar graphs, pie charts and plates. The data was analysed through computer Excel and SPSS programmes. The presentation of results was done in form of narrative, graphs, tables, pie and bar charts. The results show that 2.3 % of the households were highly vulnerable, 32.6 % were moderately vulnerable and 65.1 % less vulnerable. The overall drought vulnerability for the study area was 0.46, indicating moderate vulnerability. This implies moderate support is required from external sources. In order to build community drought resilience camel keeping, development of strategic water resources and investments in rangeland reseeding and control of invasive plant species is necessary.