Dynamics Stochastic Interaction Approach to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Non-Oil Exports and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

This study was motivated owing to the current need to critically examine the dynamic interaction of FDI, exports and economic growth in Nigeria which has received little attention in the literature. The study extracted data from CBN Statistical Bulletin and UNCTAD investment report from 1980-2016. Consequently, impulse response and variance decomposition were tested. The results of the study show that the interactions among FDI, exports and economic growth appear very weak and do not follow a predictable pattern in Nigeria: that foreign direct investment should lead to improvement in exports and eventually expand the frontier of economic growth. This suggests that there are some structural rigidities in the economy that are preventing the impact of exports from being fully felt by the economy, particularly through economic growth channel. This further reinforces the presence of some institutional factors that create inherent problems in the economy that could frustrate any valid and sincere investment policies formulated by the government. The study recommends among others that that policy shocks to FDI, exports, and economic growth in Nigeria do not show immediate responses in the desired direction. Therefore, policy makers should as a matter of fact bear it in mind the time lag it involves in order to ensure appropriateness in the timing of policies in this regard.