Presidential Elections in Africa after 1990: How and Why the Incumbent is Almost Always Reelected, Evidence from Cameroon

Abstract

After 1990, several presidential elections on a multiparty platform were held, and in most of them, the incumbent president was successful. Explanations of incumbent success and opposition failure in presidential elections are critical to understanding the political process of struggling democracies of Africa. In Cameroon, of the four presidential elections held, incumbent Paul Biya was victorious with varying scores. However, scientific explanations to the causes of presidential victories and losses have not been adequately explored to give us a clearer picture of the dynamics of presidential elections in the continent. This paper seeks to partly fill this gap. It investigates comparative study of presidential elections in Africa with a focus on Cameroon, from the comparative analysis perspectives. It tries to find out the causes and consequences of presidential victories and losses by explaining why the opposition consistently losses to the incumbent. It finds that incumbency advantage significantly explains the consistent success of incumbent in presidential elections.