Analysis of Risk Factors That Affecting Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in West Sumatra Province with Panel Data Regression

Abstract

Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is endemic disease in Indonesia, including in West Sumatra Province. DHF is found throughout the year in West Sumatra Province. Dengue viruses and their mosquito vectors are sensitive to their environments. The changes of climates (temperature, rainfall, humidity), density of population is a very important factor in the arising and spread of DHF. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between climate factors, number and density of population with DHF cases in West Sumatra Province in Indonesia to develop a predicting model for dengue's control and prevention purpose. The panel data regression model (Pooled least square) were used to explore associated climate factors, number and density of population are affecting of DHF in West Sumatra from 2012 to 2017.

The result showed that pooled least square model could describe DHF cases in West Sumatra Province with determination coefficient, R2= 64,75. This means that the variation of response variable that can be explained by the model was 64,75%. The predictor variables that affecting the number of DHF cases in West Sumatra Province were humidity, number and density of population in the previous year. That founding makes a contribution towards advancing knowledge with respect to the causality of DHF cases and has policy implications for DHF prevention and control.