Survival Modeling of Unemployment Duration Experience of Staff of National Bureau of Statistics, Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

This article sought to model unemployment duration of staff of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Ibadan Office. Structured questionnaires were administered on 150 staff out of which 119 were duly completed and returned. Survival model employed was Kaplan Meier model. Survival curves of males and females were compared using the Log-rank test. It was found that 91.2% of males and 91.6% of females were unemployed for 12 months, 20.9% of males were unemployed for 144 months while 35.5% of females were unemployed for 216 months; no male was unemployed after 264 months while no female was unemployed after 240 months. Over 50% of males and females were unemployed for 60 months (5 years). The survival probabilities are higher for females than for males for survival times (t = 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60) shared by both males and females. However, log-rank test produced a p-value of 0.259 which led to non-rejection of the null hypothesis of no difference in population curves of males and females. It was concluded that there was no significant difference in the unemployment duration of male and female staff. The need to encourage entrepreneurial education, revisit power sector privatization and sustain efforts at ending insurgency, banditry, kidnapping and the likes was recommended.