Survival Analysis of Patients Receiving HIV Antiretroviral Treatment in Kenya

Abstract

HIV infections and AIDS constitute a major cause of premature death and impose a significant disease burden in Kenya. An estimated 1.6 million people are infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), while 1.5 million have died since the virus was first detected in Kenya in 1984. There is a limited understanding of the impacts of socioeconomic factors on the survival rates of HIV positive persons who have been enrolled and are on treatment follow-up.

The aim of this study was to enhance understanding of the determinants and survival rates of HIV positive patients on treatment follow up in Kenya. To achieve this objective, data were collected from two hospitals in Kenya – Mbagathi District Hospital in Nairobi and Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Eldoret. The study used stratified Cox Proportional Hazard model to estimate the survival rate of the patients on and those not on antiretroviral therapy from the two hospitals after controlling for potential confounders.

It was established in the study that the patients who were on ARVs and were employed at the time of treatment debut had a lower risk of dying from HIV and AIDS-related illnesses compared to the patients who were on ARVs but were unemployed at the time of enrolment. The study confirmed that ARVs were increasingly more beneficial the lower the CD4 counts were. Furthermore, the study found that condom use reduced the mortality risk for patients on treatment follow up. Finally, the study found that men who were on treatment follow up had a higher risk of dying than the women. 

The study findings showed that ART increased the survival rates thereby supporting the policy of universal access to treatment for HIV positive patients that the government is currently implementing. However, for this policy to achieve the desired results, the government not only needs to increase employment opportunities for HIV positive persons but, also ensure that employees were not retrenched based on their HIV positive status.